Chapter 581 US$15 billion

Chapter 581 US$15 billion

Chapter 581 US$15 billion

The trading process of individual stock options is very simple.

For example, Fan Wumian is optimistic about Apple stock and believes that it is likely to rise in the next two months, so he wants to buy call options with a total amount of US$15 billion.

The first step is to inquire about the price. You need to contact securities firms, investment banks and other institutions to find out the price and understand what the premium of the two-month call option on Apple stock is.

Assuming only 5% is needed, he only needs to pay a premium of US$7500 million. If he wants to increase the margin ratio to 10%, it is also negotiable.

In case the stock price goes up, he can choose to exercise the option in advance or close the position, and the brokerage firm will pay him the profit based on the principal of 15 billion afterwards.

If the stock price plummets during this period, you may be required to pay additional premiums, or be forced to close your positions by brokerage firms, ultimately losing all your money.

After the seller sells a call option to Fan Wumian, if the stock price of the underlying asset soars, the seller needs to sell the stock at the exercise price, and the loss will be infinitely magnified as the stock price rises.

But Apple's size is there. Last year, its stock price had already surged due to the release of products such as the MacBook laptop computer. However, the overall economic environment of the US stock market was sluggish, and the gains were quickly wiped out.

Some people are optimistic about Apple's prospects, while others are pessimistic about its stock price. After the orders were placed in batches, it took only more than an hour for five securities firms and investment banks to build positions, totaling long positions worth US$15 billion.

Faced with this number, even Fan Wumian felt a little suffocated, and wondered if he had gone a little too far this time.

Although the probability of winning the bet is about 1.5% or %, nothing is absolute. It is also possible that Steve Jobs suddenly falls ill, causing Apple stock to encounter a black swan event, and the stock price plummets in a short period of time, directly making the million yuan premium invested by Fan Wumian completely go down the drain.

It is already 2007, and there are only a few years left until the death of Silicon Valley technology godfather Steve Jobs.

With the emergence of Fan Wumian, many things have already been indirectly changed invisibly. From the perspective of Murphy's Law, there is indeed a possibility of infinitely magnifying the risks.

This time he took a big step, and the thought of losing tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars made him involuntarily start to worry about the outcome.

After all, this time it is just speculation on call options, which is different from long-term holding of stocks such as Penguin and Sanyao Heavy Industry. The leverage is 10 times, and the risk is 10 times higher than normal.

I couldn't sleep late at night.

Fan Wumian continued to video chat with Zuo Ziyan, his tone slightly melancholy, and said to her:

"Only when I really put the chips on the table did I clearly realize that they might be taken away by the dealer. I wonder if I am that unlucky? Although I am very optimistic about the prospects of Apple stocks, I can't help but think about the worst outcome."

"There's nothing I can do. I've already opened a position. I'll know the result after Apple's press conference in a few days."

"I still have some money left, but I don't think I can use it recently, so I can add more positions at any time. I can't imagine how difficult it would be for me to live in the next period of time if I lost more than 10 or 20 billion Hong Kong dollars at one time."

Zuo Ziyan also began to realize the seriousness of the problem and reminded:
"Although you have chips, it is best not to think about losing all the chips before leaving. You can set a closing line. For example, if you lose 5% of your margin, that is, Apple's stock price drops by 5 points, you can immediately withdraw and leave."

"Hasn't the share price of Penguin been rising recently? If you lose part of the cash obtained from this loan, Bank of China Hong Kong will not withdraw your loan."

"But in that case, your liquidity will be very tight. The worst that can happen is that you can make a few more movies. I believe that you are a money-making expert, and you can definitely do it."

Compared with Fan Wumian, Zuo Ziyan seemed much more relaxed.

This is not because he is indifferent to the matter, but Fan Wumian's wealth is there. This time he only invested about one-tenth of it. If he loses half of his chips, he can withdraw and run away in time, so there is no need to suffer any serious damage.

Moreover, with Fan Wumian's incredible fortune, Zuo Ziyan has been slapped in the face more than once. Even now, she is still a little confused and has no idea how he made his fortune.

Over time, Miss Zuo has learned her lesson. She will not easily express her opinions until everything is settled, for fear that her self-esteem will be shattered and she will lose face.

She was just thinking about how to comfort him when she heard Fan Wumian add:
"The chances of success are only about 80%. If the investment period is extended to three to five years, then I will basically be sure to win. Apple's technology and R&D capabilities are really amazing." "80%? Are you still worried about this?"

"I put more than a billion Hong Kong dollars on the gambling table. This is my cash reserve. If I lose, I will tighten my belt and live a hard life for a while. If I make a fortune, I will buy a private jet, put a bed in it, and take you to the sky first."

"."

I didn't understand it before, but now I understand Fan Wumian's double entendre in an instant. Zuo Ziyan said lightly:

"We were just talking about serious matters, but suddenly we're not serious anymore. I don't think I can go to San Francisco. My last exam is scheduled for the 12th, and Apple's press conference is on the 9th. If you have a private jet, I can also benefit from it. Then I can come back to Hong Kong to see you often. It's too inconvenient to take a passenger plane."

Private jets are obviously more convenient.

Time management is much more convenient. You can get on the plane before you feel sleepy and when you wake up you will already be flying over Europe. Since you don't need to worry about the airline cutting corners to save costs, safety seems to be relatively high.

Now that he has a mansion and a yacht, there aren't many things Fan Wumian wants, and a private jet is one of them. Although the free plane rentals provided by the bank are cost-effective, some models are too old and the hygiene is also worrying.

At one point, I even smelled a strong, special scent near my seat, which made it hard not to wonder if someone was looking for excitement in heaven.

It is normal to worry about gains and losses just after building a position.

During the video chat, Fan Wumian checked the research and development progress of Android. After the company was acquired by Google, not much news came out. It was estimated that it would still be far behind Apple in the early stage.

This gave Fan Wumian more confidence in Apple, because it could monopolize the market in the early stages, and monopoly business was the easiest to do, and he believed that other investors would not be unaware of this.

It’s a pity that the first generation iPhone is like a large MP4 and mobile phone, and it is not yet able to support third-party developers to launch applications for Apple’s operating system. This obviously reduces the fun of the iPhone to some extent.

It will still be two or three years before the smartphone that Fan Wumian really wants to see is available. During this period, there will be gold-digging opportunities everywhere, and it will also be an opportunity for companies such as Penguin Group and Tudou.com.

I chatted with Zuo Ziyan until midnight and listened to her mention a lot of gossip among the wealthy families in Hong Kong.

For example, Little Superman, who also lives on Tai Long Wan Road, is in his forties, but is having a passionate affair with a 19-year-old actress and often brings her to his mansion next to Zuo Ziyan's new home.

Almost all of Hong Kong’s resources are firmly controlled by investors, so female stars have to pay a price if they want to become famous.

Some really beautiful girls with good acting skills, on the contrary, because they cannot risk their lives to get ahead, have no choice but to play supporting roles or find other ways to make a living. This also leads to many female stars not being able to withstand being exposed, and often having a lot of negative news about them.

If it were in the mainland, it would have been banned long ago. Fortunately, I am from Hong Kong, so they turned a blind eye and gave me as much leniency as possible.

There is also the Malaysian-American mixed-race beauty Liu Bili, who became famous for shooting commercials and was chosen by Stephen Chow to promote a certain brand of beer. However, she has recently been dating the son of Zuo Ziyan’s father’s friend. The key is that the other party is married, and it is said that he was severely punished by his wife and others.

And Thirteenth Aunt, seemed to have finally walked out of the shadow of those two little balls, and started dating a wealthy businessman from Taiwan, and they attended parties together.

Let’s talk about this.

Zuo Ziyan was inspired and asked:
"It seems that there is something wrong with the atmosphere in Hong Kong. Ah Mian, you are a wealthy man now. When I'm not around, is there any girl who wants to steal my boyfriend?"

It would be too fake to just say no, so Fan Wumian said frankly:

"Of course there are. There are so many people who like me. There are even young models who have sent me swimsuit photos. But I am not moved at all. I just slap them and never give them the chance to take advantage of me."

(End of this chapter)